MARKE T
TREND S
U.S. Property
Investment Sales Forecast
in billions
SECTOR
Te Pension Real Estate Association forecasters see the industrial sector
providing fve-year returns of 8.5 percent annually, the highest of all
property sectors, according to its 1Q13 Consensus Forecast survey of
the NCREIF Property Index. In addition, while multifamily returns are
forecast to reach 9 percent this year, they decline going forward to provide
a fve-year average of 8.1 percent annually. Ofce and retail follow with
fve-year average returns of 8.0 percent and 7.9 percent respectively. PREA
frms surveyed include 28 large investment and adviser commercial real
estate companies.
2013F
2014F
Office
$77.6
$85.1
$125.3
Industrial
$36.9
$39.7
$42.1
Retail
$52.8
$64.6
$70.7
Multifamily
$84.6
$95.0
$102.3
Source: Cassidy Turley
By the Numbers, 4Q12
Average single-tenant retail fnancing
Fixed-rate sales and refnances
Interest rate
Debt yield
Cap rate
Loan to value
Debt service coverage
4.8%
11.8%
7.0%
59.6%
1.7x
Source: Calkain, Chandon
"The growth trajectory should
accelerate in 2014, with GDP
growth ranging between 3 percent
and 4 percent. Finally, after four
years of sluggish growth, a very
healthy U.S. economy is
poised to emerge."
— Kevin Torpe, chief economist, Cassidy Turley
2012
CMBS
Activity
Total loans
outstanding:
$587.2 billion
Hotel
11.1%
Other
8.5%
Office
31.0%
Industrial 5.0%
Retail
31.5%
Multifamily
12.9%
Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn.
8
May | June | 2013
Commercial Investment Real Estate
Anton Novikov/Veer
Industrial
Digs Up
Best
Five-Year
Return
2012